Public Sector

Modelling the end-user Swiss electricity consumption

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The electricity and gas crises in Europe and Switzerland during winter 2022 required exceptional measures to meet the demand and to cope with soaring energy prices. Due to this, Swiss policy makers and legislators were in urgent need of a near to real-time estimates of the national electricity consumption. In Switzerland, only the vertical load seen from the transmission network and the total national electricity consumption are published, and with major delays. Furthermore, at the end of August 2022 the Swiss government launched an energy saving campaign, calling for a quantification of the changes in electricity consumption habits of the Swiss population.


Using a model (Generalized Additive Model or GAM) which learns from the Swiss historic national consumption provided by Swissgrid, we could predict the national electricity demand using as input also calendar and meteorological data (from MeteoSwiss). Moreover, we developed a bottom-up methodology to quantify changes in electricity consumption by the end-users. From individual load curves from smart meters of Distribution Network Operators, we extrapolate the load to the national level using scaling factors and corrections.


The models to forecast the electricity demand at national level and to quantify the reduction of consumption have been integrated into the SFOE Energy Dashboard. The results of this project allowed to monitor the real-time electricity consumption and to quantify up to 6% energy saving by end-users after the launch of the Federal campaign. These examples prove how data science can support decision-making processes and can measure the effectiveness of large-scale policies implementation.


Special thanks to the OFEN Digital Innovation Office, particularly to Matthias Galus and Fabian Heymann, for the fruitful exchanges and to Nicolas Charton and Yves Baudet from E-CUBE Strategy Consultants SA for their shared advice and expertise during the entire project.

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